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Governor's approval rating sinking Wednesday, Oct 29, 2003 By Rob Moritz LITTLE ROCK - Gov. Mike Huckabee's job approval rating continues to drop, according to the Arkansas Poll by the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. "This was not entirely unexpected and likely reflects back on the education reform issue," said Janine Parry, assistant professor of political science and director of The Arkansas Poll, released today. "The governor has said several times that he's willing to fall on his own sword to improve education in Arkansas, and these numbers would seem to bear him out," Parry said. "He may well end up sacrificing his political career on this issue." The poll, conducted Oct. 5-13, found Huckabee's approval rating, which reached 70 percent in 2001 and dropped to 50 percent last year, slipping to 47 percent this year. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Parry said much of the governor's decline in approval rating can be blamed on his education reform proposal, which include some consolidation. Comparing 2001 poll results to current results, Parry said she found that the governor's approval rating has dropped 33 percent among those who consider themselves rural residents. Many of the state's rural residents would see their schools close to consolidation if the governor's education reform plan is passed, she said. "There seems to be a tangible, palpable relationship between his advocacy ... on behalf of school reform to meet the court mandate and the people's reaction to that," she said. Political scientists Jay Barth of Hendrix College in Conway and Art English of the University of Arkansas at Little Rock agreed with Parry and noted that when first elected governor in 1996 the governor had unprecedented support in rural areas. Gunner DeLay, chairman of the state Republican Party, however, said the poll results show the governor appears to be holding his own despite taking on such a politically volatile issue as education reform. "He has spent a lot of political capital on this and if he's still at 47 percent, I'd say he's doing fine," DeLay said. Huckabee, who was in Murfreesboro on Tuesday attending the ceremonies surrounding the release of the Arkansas quarter, couldn't be reached for comment. State Democratic Party Chairman Ron Oliver said the governor has tackled a difficult issue and that it has hurt him politically, especially among rural voters. "Whether it's right or wrong, because of his position on education reform, he has suffered," Oliver said. Huckabee's drop also can be attributed to the drop in the economy nationwide, Parry said, adding that it is one of the reasons President Bush's approval rating dropped from 61 percent last year to 47 percent this year. "Given the sustained downturn of the economy and general global uncertainty, incumbents seem to be taking a serious hit on their approval ratings," she said. "It's a trend that's been noted nationally, and it's possible that our own governor may be suffering the backlash from this slump," she said. Oliver said Bush's drop bodes well for the Democratic nominee who faces him in the presidential election in November 2004. DeLay disagreed that the poll shows Bush is in trouble. He said the incumbent president almost always has low poll numbers a year before the election. Also, there are signs that the economy is improving and when it does, so will Bush's approval ratings, DeLay said. The University of Arkansas also surveyed approval ratings for U.S. Sens. Blanche Lincoln, and Mark Pryor, both D-Ark. It shows the job approval for Lincoln increased from 50 percent to 55 percent, with 10 percent not approving of the job she's doing, compared with 16 percent a year ago. Pryor, who defeated incumbent Sen. Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., last year in a hotly contested race, has a 52 percent approval for his first year, with 11 percent not approving of the job he's doing. |
