|
|
| |
| Sat, Nov. 22, 2008 |  |
 |
|
||
| | 
Bush holds 9-point lead in Arkansas Sunday, Oct 10, 2004 By David Robinson Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - South Arkansas voters - often advantage-Democrats - have contributed to a 9-point lead for President Bush over rival Sen. John Kerry, according to a new independent poll. The Republican Bush leads Kerry, a Democrat from Massachusetts, 52 percent to 43 percent, according to the poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. The poll shows Kerry losing by 17 points in southern Arkansas and even with Bush among women. Ralph Nader, the Populist Party candidate, got 1 percent. The results were a surprise to Ernie Oakleaf of Opinion Research Associates Inc., which conducted the survey Monday through Wednesday. "Everything that I had heard so far was that it was a very tight race," Oakleaf said. Opinion Research interviewed by telephone 502 randomly selected registered voters who said they were planning to vote in the Nov. 2 general election. "Those numbers do not surprise me," said Mitchell Lowe, executive director of the Bush-Dick Cheney Arkansas campaign. Lowe said it's clear that both campaigns have Arkansas in Bush's win column, given Kerry's decision to withdraw planned television advertising and Bush's withdrawal of campaign staff. "I think the Bush-Cheney campaign is comfortable with where we are, but the attitude here is we're going to finish this campaign with every ounce of effort we have and take nothing for granted," Lowe said. John Emekli, Arkansas spokesman for the Kerry-John Edwards campaign, disputed the poll's findings, noting that other polls have shown the race in Arkansas to be closer. "The campaign here is running strong," Emekli said. "All the polls we've seen have been within the margin of error. We're confident that's an accurate reflection of where this election is." He said the campaign has a strong presence across the state with 13 field offices, and that he believes women voters will come through for Kerry on Election Day. Todd Shields, who chairs the political science department at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said Bush appears to have Arkansas sewed up, especially considering that the poll followed Bush's lackluster debate performance and worsening events in Iraq. But, he added, the results technically are within the margin of error, and there are two debates to go. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at a 95 percent level of confidence. Oakleaf said some real surprises reside in the poll's demographics. "Bush is just really beating Kerry in the 4th District," he said. Though heavily populated by Democrats, that southern Arkansas congressional district favors Bush by 56 percent to 39 percent for Kerry. "That's incredible," said Todd Shields, who chairs the political science department at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville. It is the only district without a Republican candidate this election cycle, giving Democratic incumbent Congressman Mike Ross a free pass to another term. Shields attributed Bush's southern Arkansas support to a cultural disconnect with Kerry that doesn't exist with Bush. "In terms of Yankee type presidents, this candidate is Michael Dukakis with one notch up," Shields said, comparing Kerry to the 1988 Democratic presidential nominee. "He's very aristocratic. He's very New England. He has very little in common with hunters and NASCAR fans." As for Bush, Shields said, "you could see him just sitting down at a NASCAR race or going fishing or going hunting. And I think voters can relate to that." The spread in the 4th District is almost as wide as Bush's lead in Northwest Arkansas' 3rd District, where voters favor him 59 percent to 38 percent. Oakleaf, political scientists and the Bush-Dick Cheney campaign speculated that Kerry's "F" grade by the National Rifle Association played a role in the southern Arkansas results. "There happen to be lot of sportsmen in South Arkansas," Lowe said, noting Kerry's NRA grade. "I think you do have a lot of Democrats there, but they're not the same kind of Democrat that John Kerry is." Ann Clemmer, a political science instructor at the University of Arkansas at Little Rock, noted that Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore in 2000 carried 16 counties in the 4th District compared to Bush's 12. She said voters in 2000 may have been more inclined to vote for then-Vice President Gore because of an allegiance to then-President Bill Clinton, who grew up in Hot Springs. Voters in southern Arkansas in this election may simply find Bush more appealing than Kerry, she said. "It's almost sad to say ... that we pay attention to image as much as we do," Clemmer said. "But I think Bush's image plays better in rural areas than I think Kerry's does." In central Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District, Bush leads Kerry 49 percent to 46 percent. In northeastern Arkansas' 1st District, Kerry leads Bush 50 percent to 42 percent. Among women, Kerry got 48 percent compared to 38 percent among men. Bush got support from 57 percent of men and 47 percent of women. Oakleaf said the speculation nationally is that women voters are more concerned about national security and believe Bush is better able to protect the country from terrorism. In 2000, women nationally chose Gore by an 11 percentage-point margin, Clemmer said. However, in Arkansas women were split between Bush and Gore. "If nationwide it's almost even between Kerry and Bush then that's a significant reversal of the gender gap," she said. "It's that security mom thing they're starting to talk about." Janine Parry, associate professor of politics at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, pointed out that a gender gap remains evident in Arkansas, based on the 10-point difference shown in the poll. Asked who they trusted more on the war on terrorism, women said Bush 48 percent to Kerry's 44 percent, according to the poll. On the war in Iraq, women also supported Bush 48 percent to 43 percent. Shields said the stereotypical soccer mom who may have voted for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Gore in 2000, wanted the benefits from the existing economic boom to go to their children, and health care and other domestic programs. "The soccer moms have become what everyone's calling security moms," Shields said. "They're wanting somebody that they think is going to be aggressive, that's going to make their children safe, and that's going to make America safe." Almost all respondents recognized Bush's and Kerry's names, but Bush's favorable rating outranked Kerry's, 55 percent to 48 percent. Kerry also had a higher unfavorable rating than Bush - 47 percent to 42 percent. Other demographic results: -Even among those who describe themselves as liberal, 23 percent said they would pick Bush over Kerry. -Fifteen percent of Democrats and 69 percent of independents said they would pick Bush over Kerry. -Nader drew 1 percent of support from Democrats, 2 percent from independents and 0 percent from Republicans. -Bush did better among those with higher education levels. Fifty-seven percent of those with some college and 58 percent with a college degree support Bush. Fifty-six percent of voters with some high school and 51 percent of high school graduates support Kerry. -Kerry does not win any age group category. The 18-35 age group supports Bush 58 percent to 36 percent; the 35-44 age group supports Bush 60 percent to 32 percent; ages 45-54 are for Bush 50 percent to 47 percent; and Kerry and Bush tie at 48 percent among voters ages 55-64 and 65-plus. -Fifty-eight percent of white collar workers support Bush, and 54 percent of blue collar workers support Bush. -Support for Kerry is greatest among the lowest income households. Fifty-seven percent of households earning under $20,000 picked Kerry as did the 54 percent earning less than $30,000 annually. -Support shifts dramatically to Bush as soon as incomes rise above $30,000. Fifty-six percent of the $30,000 to $40,000 bracket pick Bush. -In the $40,000-$50,000 bracket, Kerry regains support - 54 percent to Bush's 42 percent. -Bush's support is greatest among households with incomes above $50,000. Sixty-six percent earning between $50,000 and $75,000 support Bush, and 65 percent of those earning more than $75,000 pick Bush. -White voters support Bush 55 percent to Kerry's 39 percent. Black voters support Kerry 88 percent to Bush's 10 percent. |
