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| Sun, May. 11, 2008 |  |
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Lincoln has 60 percent support, poll finds Monday, Oct 11, 2004 By Doug Thompson Arkansas News Bureau Incumbent U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln of Little Rock leads her election challenger, state Sen. Jim Holt of Springdale, by 60 percent to 32 percent in a poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. "I knew all Holt would get is the Republican base. Sounds like he doesn't have all of that," said Ron Oliver of Little Rock, state Democratic Party chairman. Jay Barth, a political science professor at Hendrix College in Conway, gave the same conclusion in a separate interview. "Thirty-two percent is pretty much the base vote that any Republican will get in this state. That's what Jim Holt is getting," Barth said. "No offense to him, but a blank line with the word 'Republican' beside it would get that." Opinion Research Associates, Inc., of Little Rock interviewed 502 randomly selected registered voters in Arkansas by telephone, voters who said they were planning to vote in the November general election. Interviews were conducted last Oct. 4-6. Poll subjects from throughout the state were interviewed, and the sample was divided equally among the state's four congressional districts. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The numbers are encouraging to the re-election campaign, but polls often vary and are subject to change, said Lincoln campaign spokesman Drew Goesl. Lincoln will continue to "work hard in the closing weeks of this campaign to prove to the people of Arkansas that she will not take their support for granted," he said. Lincoln was in Washington, D.C., while the Senate is in session and unavailable for comment, he said. Jason Sheppard, Holt's campaign manager, said that other media outlet polls show Lincoln ahead but by less of a margin. The closest margin was a 14 percent difference in a television station's poll a week ago, he said. "We're not disputing Jim's behind in the polls," Sheppard said. "Our point is that people who know Jim are supporting Jim, and people who know Lincoln are abandoning Lincoln. "We're doing what we can to get our message out. We're the underdog," Sheppard said. "Jim's in Helena today," which is in Lincoln's original home county. "People there don't like that Lincoln voted against the federal marriage amendment and that she has a D rating from the National Rifle Association." In the Opinion Research poll, adding Holt's percentage to the total number of undecided voters, and applying the margin of error completely to Holt's favor leaves him still showing less than 46 percent support. "That's a huge gap these days in any poll," said Hoyt Purvis, head of the Fulbright Institute at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville. "If you come up with every best case scenario, it's almost irreversible at this point. Holt would have to have a massive media campaign to even start seriously cutting into that. He hasn't had much media. Lincoln's got a lot, and she'd be able to buy whatever she needs just to keep safe." Holt leads among voters who identify themselves as conservative, 48 percent to 42. Lincoln leads among voters who define themselves as moderates by 72 percent to 20. Liberals favored Lincoln 81 percent to 11. The most revealing finding is that Lincoln has the support of 42 percent of the polled voters who identify themselves as conservative, Purvis said. "That tells you a lot right there. "Lincoln has managed to position herself as a moderate conservative despite efforts to taint her otherwise. She's done a good job of it, frankly. That factor alone makes this an uphill struggle for Holt." Barth agreed. "Jim Holt is conservative, but he's extremely conservative," Barth said. "Lincoln has moderated herself to such a degree she's palatable to conservatives." Lincoln's lead is so large, there's now speculation that her Senate campaign could help Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry this year, Barth said. "We hear a lot of how voter turnout operations in big races lead to some coattails for candidates farther down the ballot," he said. "Well, that can work up the ballot, too. Sen. Lincoln could be successful in provoking large amounts of Democratic turnout." Poll responses were also broken down by congressional district, age, income levels and other criteria. Lincoln led in every area except among conservatives and Republicans. The closest margin was in Northwest Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District, where Lincoln led Holt 50 percent to 47 percent, and in the 35 to 44-year age category, where Lincoln led 46 to 43 percent. Results show Holt had almost no support among blacks who were polled: 3 percent compared to 88 percent for Lincoln. Lincoln had 90 percent support among poll subjects who identified themselves as Democrats while Holt had 69 percent support among those identifying themselves as Republicans. Holt, who has made opposition to abortion a major campaign theme, had 25 percent support among women in the poll. Lincoln, a woman who has voted against some forms of abortion but who maintains that abortion is a family matter, had 65 percent support from that gender. Purvis said he was not surprised by Holt's poor showing among black voters. "I've wondered all along how Holt was going to make any dent in the black voting population," Purvis said. "Most of those voters are concentrated in other parts of the state than Northwest Arkansas, and he's going up against a candidate who's well known in those other areas and has had good backing from that constituency in the past." As for the 35 to 44 age group, "that sounds like an anomaly," Purvis said. "There's no reason that group should be so different, unless that age group is skewed toward being conservative." |
