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Women, independents help Kerry erase 9-point deficit Sunday, Oct 24, 2004 By David Robinson Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - Sen. John Kerry has pulled even with President Bush in Arkansas after being down 9 points, according to a new poll for the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Kerry, a Democrat, and the Republican Bush each received 48 percent support from likely voters surveyed Monday through Wednesday by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock. A poll two weeks earlier gave Bush a 52 percent to 43 percent lead, just within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Populist Party candidate Ralph Nader got 1 percent in the new poll, and 3 percent were undecided. "It suggests to me that Kerry may have some momentum, now," said Ernest Oakleaf, who owns Opinion Research with his wife, Zoe. "Beautiful," said John Emekli, Arkansas spokesman for the Kerry-John Edwards campaign. Emekli had disputed the first poll's results because other polls had shown the race to be closer. Republicans remain confident that while the race may be close, Bush will win Arkansas' six electoral votes, said Mitchell Lowe, executive director of the Bush-Dick Cheney Arkansas campaign. Oakleaf noted that the first Arkansas News Bureau poll, conducted Oct. 4-6, followed the first of three presidential debates, and the second poll came after all three. Kerry gained ground in the second poll among independents, women and voters with higher incomes. But Bush's lead remained dominate with higher income voters, whites and males, according to the poll. Political scientists around Arkansas also cited the debates as critical to the change. Other polls in the last two weeks also have shown a tightening race, suggesting a trend that tracks national surveys. "It looks like a surge for Kerry," said Hal Bass, political science professor at Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia. "It appears to be a delayed reaction to Kerry's strong showing in the debates, which may have given some assurance that he is up to the job." Andrew Dowdle, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, said most polls showed that Kerry won the first and third debates. Other factors include mixed economic news and continuing uncertainty in Iraq, Dowdle said. Opinion Research surveyed 500 people likely to vote in the Nov. 2 election - 125 from each of Arkansas' four congressional districts. Four factors stand out when comparing the two polls: -In the first poll Bush led among independent voters, 69 percent to 22 percent. But Kerry has closed the gap, with Bush now leading 54 percent to 39 percent, meaning his 47-point margin among independents is now 15 points. -The percentage of women supporting Kerry grew by 6 points, to 53 percent, while women's support of Bush dropped from 47 percent to 42 percent, further widening the gender gap. -Support for Kerry in southern Arkansas' 4th Congressional District grew by 9 percentage points from the first poll to the second. In the first poll, Bush had a 56 percent to 39 percent lead in the largely Democratic district, but he trails Kerry in the second poll 48 percent to 46 percent. -Kerry's favorable rating went from 48 percent to 53 percent and Bush's favorable rating dropped from 55 percent to 51 percent. The late move toward Kerry among independents may be signaling what typically happens to incumbent presidents on Election Day, political scientists said. "Undecideds break for the challenger," said Janine Parry, associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas and director of the university's annual Arkansas Poll. "It suggests that that process may already be happening." She said it's not a stretch to assume that undecided voters are independents. Averaged over several election cycles, the incumbent's vote will be slightly more than 1 percentage point less than their final polling numbers. The challenger will get an average of four points more than their final polling numbers, Parry said. The second poll showed 3 percent of voters are undecided compared to 5 percent in the first poll. "History would suggest that the president is going to do slightly worse than the polls would tell us, and Kerry will do significantly better than the polls," Parry said, adding that some analysts argue that the historical reference may be no good given the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the Iraq war. Dowdle said that while the shift reflected in the poll is good news for Kerry, independent voters are more volatile and could shift back to Bush by Election Day. Parry and Dowdle said the wide swing in the 4th District's results from the first to the second poll may be due to a statistical glitch in either poll. That's possible because only 125 people in each congressional district are surveyed, which increases the margin of error. Dowdle, who specializes in presidential campaigns and elections, said the second poll appears to be more on track given the largely Democratic 4th District. Oakleaf was surprised that southern Arkansas was so strongly behind Bush in the first poll, but at the time he and political scientists had chalked it up to a cultural disconnect between those voters and Kerry. Other demographics: -Bush leads in central Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District 49 percent to 47 percent, and Northwest Arkansas' 3rd district 53 percent to 45 percent. Kerry leads in eastern Arkansas' 1st District 51-46 and the 4th District, 48-46. -Among those identifying themselves as liberals, 24 percent would vote for Bush and 75 percent for Kerry. Moderates support Kerry 61 percent to 33 percent and conservatives support Bush 67 percent to 30 percent. -Kerry gets more support among households earning under $50,000 a year while Bush leads among those earning above that amount. For those earning between 30,000 and $40,000, Kerry leads 58 percent to 39 percent and for those earning between $40,000 and $50,000, he leads 54-44. Among households earning $50,000 to $75,000 a year, Bush leads 64 percent to 36 percent, and for those earning more than $75,000 his lead is 62 percent to 38 percent. -By race, Bush leads among whites 53 percent to 43 percent. Among blacks, Kerry leads 87 percent to 12 percent. -By education, Bush leads among those with more education, although for college graduates, Bush has only a 49 percent to 48 percent advantage. -Kerry, who did not win any age-group category in the first poll, now leads among those 25-35 and the 65-plus age groups. Other Arkansas polls have shown the race to be tightening. A Zogby International poll by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette on Oct. 14 showed Bush with 46.2 percent, and Kerry with 44.6 percent, a statistical tie. A Survey USA poll on Oct. 17 showed Bush leading 51 percent to 46 percent, within the margin of error. |
