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| | Term limits poll show lagging support
Tuesday, Oct 26, 2004 By Wesley Brown Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - Support appears to be deteriorating for a ballot proposal to extend the terms of Arkansas legislators, according to a new poll commissioned by the Arkansas News Bureau and Stephens Media Group. Sixty percent of likely voters polled on Amendment 1 say they will vote against it, while only 32 percent say they will support it. The poll of 500 likely voters split among the state's four congressional districts was conducted by Opinion Research Associates Inc. of Little Rock. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Eight percent were undecided, down 1 percent from the survey done two weeks earlier by the same organization. New results contrast dramatically with the earlier poll, which showed that 51 percent of likely voters would vote against the term limits extension, and 40 percent favored the idea. Supporters of Amendment 1 blame the 9 percent drop on out-of-state special interest money. "The people of Arkansas are letting out-of-state money influence their decision just as they did in 1992," said Jim Pledger, campaign chairman for Arkansans FOR Term Limits That Work. "We don't have the money available to us that they have available to them." Pledger said the Save Term Limits coalition, the group opposing Amendment 1, has received 99 percent of its funding from a Washington, D.C.-based lobby group. He said the out-of-state special interest group has reserved an estimated $500,000 to blitz the state with negative campaign ads heading toward the countdown to the Nov. 2 election. Pledger said his group has filed a complaint with the state Ethics Commission alleging that only $4,000 of the opposition's total funds were reported in the most recent financial statement. "We play by the rules and we think they ought to play by the rules," Pledger said, adding that Save Term Limits' most recent financial report was filed three days late. Pledger said if the opposition group has its way, "the citizens of Arkansas will be stuck with what are the most restrictive term limits in the country." However, Save Term Limits chairman Tim Jacob dismissed Pledger's criticism, and countered that those supporting the amendment include lobbyists and special interest groups such as the state Chamber of Commerce and big business. Jacob said the money is from both in and out of Arkansas, and that much is from the Woodbridge, Va., -based Citizens in Charge, which promotes citizen involvement in government. Pledger claimed that most of the money donated by U.S. Term Limits. Jacob's brother, Paul Jacob, is former president of the group and a current fellow of that group. "It's like Goliath calling David a bully," Jacob said of Pledger's criticism. "This (term limits extension) is the biggest power grabbing scheme in the history of Arkansas, and all they can talk about is a two-day old campaign report. "It is shameful behavior like this that made voters vote for term limits in the first place." Jacob also said he was pleased with the results of the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll, released only a week before the general election. "Certainly, anytime we see good numbers like this, we are pleased," said Jacob, whose group has saturated the TV and radio airwaves. "The more Arkansans know about problems with Amendment 1, the more I think they will vote against it." Amendment 1 would keep term limits in place, but extend the maximum length of time state lawmakers can serve to 12 years. Under current law, House members can serve six years, or three terms, and Senate members can stay in for eight years, or two terms. State lawmakers who put the measure on the ballot hope voters will support their argument that the state is hurt by the existing maximums, which they say force them out just as they're grasping state government's complexities. The Arkansas State Chamber of Commerce is actively campaigning on behalf of Amendment 1. Last month, Ron Russell, the chamber's CEO, said his group hoped to raise as much as $500,000 to rally support for the amendment. Russell Arben Fox, assistant professor of political science at Arkansas State University, said he was not surprised by the poll results. "There is a basic disposition with voters to respond to the populist anti-establishment sentiment associated with the term limits movement," the ASU professor said. Fox said he has heard anti-term limits radio spots while driving to work claiming that lawmakers messed up education reform, raised taxes and "now they want to stay longer in office." "I would be surprised if the amendment doesn't go down by a greater percentage (than the Arkansas News Bureau poll), even as much as 70 percent," Fox said. Other demographics from the poll show that: -Central Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District had the largest percentage of voters not likely to vote for Amendment 1 - at 67 percent. The 3rd District in Northwest Arkansas was next at 66 percent, while the eastern Arkansas' 1st and southern Arkansas' 4th districts came in at 54 percent and 53 percent. Conversely, the 4th District had the highest number of voters in favor of the ballot proposal at 38 percent, while the 2nd District had the lowest support at 26 percent. The 1st District had the highest number of undecideds at 12 percent. -Democrats had the highest number of voters supporting Amendment 1 at 35 percent, while independents and Republicans give the proposal a 29 percent affirmation. Sixty-four percent of Republicans said they would likely vote against it, while anti-term limits independents and Democrats polled at 63 percent and 57 percent. -Black voters are more likely to vote for the ballot proposal at 37 percent, while white voters only gave the amendment 32 percent approval. Sixty percent of white voters and 54 percent of black registrants say they would vote against it. Last week, a poll commissioned by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette said that 44.9 percent of Arkansans favor the proposal and 41 percent oppose, with 14.1 percent undecided. |
