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Governor's race close; president's approval rating declines Thursday, Nov 3, 2005 By Aaron Sadler Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - A year ahead of the 2006 election, almost 90 percent of likely Arkansas voters already know who they will support for governor, and although more than half of those say they will vote for Mike Beebe, the race is a statistical dead heat, according to a new poll. Beebe, the state's attorney general and a Democrat, is staked to a seven-point lead over Republican rival Asa Hutchinson in the Arkansas Poll, conducted by political scientists at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville. Forty-seven percent of likely voters surveyed last month said they would vote for Beebe, with 40 percent backing Hutchinson, a former congressman and undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security. Eleven percent of respondents did not know who they would vote for, or they refused to answer the question. Three percent would vote for another candidate. The gubernatorial poll of 561 likely Arkansas voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, meaning that Beebe's percentage could be as high as 51.1 or as low as 42.9. Hutchinson's percentage could be as high as 44.1 or as low as 35.9. The annual Arkansas Poll gauged Arkansans' opinions on a variety of topics ranging from politics to education to social issues. On other topics, surveyors talked to 766 respondents. The margin or error was plus or minus three percentage points. According to the poll, President Bush's approval rating in the state is the lowest it's been, dipping to 38 percent from 50 percent last year. Just after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the poll measured Bush's approval at 87 percent in the state. Bush's approval rating in Arkansas is on par with national polls that indicate about 40 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing. Because the gubernatorial election is more than 12 months away, spokesmen for both the Beebe and Hutchinson camps downplayed results. "It's always gratifying for Attorney General Beebe to see that so many Arkansans believe in his better vision for Arkansas, but the only poll that really matters is the one on Election Day," said Chris Massingill, Beebe's campaign manager. Other polls have put Hutchinson in the lead, said Chris Battle, Hutchinson's campaign chief, indicating to him that the race is up for grabs. "More than a year out, it's difficult to put too much stock into any one single poll," Battle said. "I think the one consistent pattern that emerges here is that what we've got is one wide-open race." Beebe will probably have an opponent in the Democratic primary. Former Clinton administration official Bill Halter is considering a run for the seat being vacated by term-limited Gov. Mike Huckabee. UA Professor Janine Parry, who headed up the Arkansas Poll, said Halter was not included in the survey because he is not yet an official candidate. Parry, too, cautioned that little can be read from the results. "The race started so early, we couldn't skip it," she said. "We thought it would be fun." Clint Reed, executive director of the state Republican party, said Arkansans should not presume Beebe as the Democratic nominee, since Halter recently announced he raised more than $500,000 since announcing his interest in the race. "We expect a close, hard-fought race no matter who the Democratic nominee for governor is," Reed added. The poll results were not surprising to Parry, who attributed Beebe's narrow lead to his longtime in-state presence as a state senator and then attorney general. Hutchinson is reintroducing himself to the Arkansas electorate after time as a federal official, she said. Parry said the small number of undecided voters so far ahead of the election may be the result of surveying very likely voters who are more in tune with politics during a nonvoting year. Still, she said "a lot of folks may already feel like they've made their choice." Battle disagreed, saying he is skeptical of any poll with so few undecided voters. "Our candidates, Democrat and Republican, have not had a chance to get out and introduce themselves and their policies to the voters yet," he said. "I think you'll see those kinds of numbers change." The poll was taken between Oct. 8 and Oct. 17. The results, particularly Bush's approval rating, shows Arkansans were discouraged by the war in Iraq, the federal government's response to Hurricane Katrina and the investigation into the White House leak of a CIA operative's identity, said Gabe Holmstrom, director of the state's Democratic party. "It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Arkansas Republicans started distancing themselves from the president," Holmstrom said. Reed countered that both presidents Reagan and Clinton had lower job approval ratings during their presidency and Arkansas Republicans intend to stand with the president and help him confirm Judge Samuel Alito, his pick for the U.S. Supreme Court. "Like President Bush, the Republican Party of Arkansas will not let polling numbers dictate our policy for what we believe or who we support," Reed said. Parry said Bush took a 23-point hit compared to last year among Arkansans in suburban areas, whose approval of the president dropped from 66 percent to 43 percent. Among Republicans, his rating fell from 92 to 82 percent; it dropped from 50 percent to 39 percent among independents; and from 52 percent to 39 percent among rural voters. In addition to Bush's approval numbers, the survey measured job performance ratings for Huckabee and Arkansas' two U.S. senators, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor. Huckabee's job approval rating of 58 percent was identical to his 2004 job performance ranking, 11 points ahead of the 2003 figure. When posed the question of whether they approve of Huckabee running for president in 2008, 44 percent of respondents said they disapproved; 43 percent approved and 13 percent did not know or refused to answer. "That question is interesting because the governor is not a candidate for president," said Alice Stewart, Huckabee's press secretary, who added that Huckabee "thinks it's nice he remains the highest-rated political figure in the state, considering the fact he's the longest-serving figure in the state." Lincoln's approval rating has been 55 percent for the past three years. Pryor's is 56 percent this year, compared to 50 percent last year and 52 percent in 2003, his first year as senator. |
