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The harder they fall Saturday, Nov 5, 2005 By Doug Thompson Arkansas news Bureau Gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson has escaped much of the damage from being a former Bush administration official, I wrote three weeks ago. He did this by being an early, active campaigner. I'll stand by that statement, but admit I underestimated the extent of the damage. Hutchinson escaped much, but much remains. That's what I see in the University of Arkansas' annual Arkansas Poll, which came out this week. I'm not talking about Democrat Mike Beebe's supposed 7-point lead in that poll, or just about the president's stunning 49 percent drop in popularity here since 2001. I'm talking about how there are fewer people willing to declare themselves Republicans or Republican sympathizers than any year in the six-year history of the poll. There's no explanation for this besides the Bush administration's still-recent plummet in public esteem. The Arkansas GOP's having one of the best fundraising years in its history and has an embarrassment of riches in candidates willing to run for state office. Lightening appears to have struck. Let's start at the beginning on the poll results. President Bush is only slightly more popular than gay marriage or civil unions in Arkansas right now: 37 percent of Arkansans polled believe in either outright legalization of gay marriage or allowing civil unions. President Bush's job approval rating is 38 percent. The poll went on to ask people whether they are Republican, Democrat or independent. If someone replied independent, the poll then asked if he tends to agree with Republicans or with Democrats. From that, a little extra math shows the percentage of the people answering the poll who were Republican or Republican "allies," or Democrats or Democratic "allies." This year, that "patriots and allies" figure for Republicans is 32.9 percent - the lowest in the history of the Arkansas Poll. That percentage compares to 40.9 last year, which was the highest it has ever been. The previous low was 33.2 percent in 1999, when Bill Clinton was president and the impeachment trial had ended with his acquittal. More important, the number of GOP members and sympathizers had grown steadily each year except for one setback in 2003. All those gains, at least temporarily, have been wiped out and then some. The Democrats and their allies are at 47.6 percent in this year's poll. The only better year for them was 2003 with 48.5 percent. Their average before this year was 44.8. The gap between pro-Republicans and pro-Democrats was 2.8 percent last year, when John Kerry was carrying the Democratic banner. This year, it's 14.7. Things do tend to close up in election years in favor of the Republicans, poll figures show. Also, the Republicans were trailing by 9.5 percent in my little comparison in 2000, when Democrat Al Gore was soundly thumped in this state. The GOP was also behind by 5.6 percent the last time Gov. Mike Huckabee soundly won re-election in 2002. That ability to jump large gaps would be more encouraging for the GOP if things looked more flexible in the poll results on the governor's race. As I said, forget the 7-point difference in the poll between Beebe and Hutchinson. What's important is that 90 percent of those considered "very likely voters" have their minds made up. Of that, all but 3 percent are set on either Beebe or Hutchinson. There may be a year to go, but there's not a lot uncommitted voters left. Once again, I have to compliment Hutchinson on his decision to campaign so intensely, so early. It may save his bacon. It may be the only thing that can. I don't see much of an opening here for an alternative candidate in either primary. Democrat Bill Halter may be a nice guy and a genius at policy. Good for him, but I just don't see a large, brooding swarm of dissatisfied Democrats in those poll numbers. There may be plenty of Democrats who quietly pine for Halter. I don't know. What the poll clearly shows, however, is that those voters will choose Beebe when faced with a choice between him and Hutchinson. Beebe has no room to be complacent. The same figures showing that there's not a lot of flexibility in this race also show he doesn't yet have enough votes to win. Beebe has an opponent who recognizes the value of early, full-tilt campaigning and has no high-profile state office to hold down. Also, Beebe's had all the help from President Bush he's going to get. The president's numbers are at rock-bottom. That 38 percent who still support the president are those to whom any Republican is better than any Democrat. That's the real Republican core in Arkansas, not the 32.9 percent who declare themselves. Bottom line: This governor's race is going to be a very tough fight for a very small number of uncommitted voters, but it looks tougher for Hutchinson right now. ------ Doug Thompson is a Fayetteville-based reporter and columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau and The Morning News. His e-mail address is dthompson@arkansasnews.com. |
