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Problems at home and across the pond Sunday, Nov 13, 2005 By David Sanders Misery loves company. It can even cross an ocean. After weeks and weeks of bad news, President Bush and Republicans were set back Tuesday when Democrats won the high-profile gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. While Republicans weren't expected to win in The Garden State, they faced an uphill battle in Virginia that wasn't insurmountable. As the campaign's final days ticked down in Virginia, Bush personally stumped for Republican Jerry Kilgore, but the strategy backfired. Bush's visit motivated Democrats and drove undecided voters away from the GOP and to Democrat Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine. In New Jersey, Democrat Sen. John Corzine successfully campaigned against his opponent, Republican Doug Forrester, using a strategy that in part relied on pinning on him the Bush administration's recent troubles in the CIA leak case. Meanwhile on Wednesday, Prime Minister Tony Blair was handed a severe defeat when the House of Commons rejected an anti-terror proposal that would have permitted authorities to hold terror suspects for 90 days. The major loss was Blair's first and may not be his last as some of his most loyal supporters voted against the proposal. The strength of Blair's tenure as prime minister has been his ability to hold his party together while driving an aggressive agenda in the Commons. The defeat in a political system built on party unity fuels doubt within the Labor Party about Blair's ability to hold the ship together during the rest of his term. Democrats here at home and Conservative Party members in the U.K. face similar challenges and circumstances. While recent measures of public opinion show that Bush and congressional Republicans are reaching new lows, Democrats do not appear to be gaining an appreciable advantage with the public. National Democrats spent most of 2005 hung over from the disbelief about last year's election results. Bush's difficulties are primarily self-inflicted. Americans are tired of the stalemate in Iraq that is played out on the nightly news. Social Security reform - Bush's major second-term domestic initiative - died a slow death when Republicans began distancing themselves from his approach. The CIA leak case, U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay's public troubles and mishandling of a Supreme Court nomination have all weakened the president and his party. Conservatives haven't held a majority in the Commons since 1997 and since that time have been unable to overtake a Labor Party which successfully shed its statist image after years of being serving as the opposition party. Blair's current troubles are largely due to increasing public opinion against the war in Iraq, which has led many in Labor's ranks to openly criticize their leader. Earlier this year, Blair's party survived elections, but gave up several seats in the Commons, leaving Labor with a 66-seat advantage. Conservative Party leader Michael Howard will be stepping down from his leadership post because Tories didn't meet electoral expectations. Howard campaigned against Blair by constantly citing the prime minister's failings and without offering a coherent vision indicating where a Conservative majority would take the country. Whether or not recent events will be a harbinger with respect to U.S. Democrats and U.K. Conservatives is a question that will not be answered for some time. Compared to the opposition party across the pond, Democrats are working with a shorter time frame with 2006 midterm elections around the corner. With respect to where the country will be next year, it will be hard for Democrats to rely solely on Bush's misfortune alone to boost their electoral chances. Even though the White House hasn't effectively demonstrated any ability to shift the country's focus away from its problems, Democrats have been unable to develop a comprehensive message using issues that have broad appeal. If events continue on their present course, Conservatives won't face another election until 2008. They have moved beyond relying on Blair's problems to boost their future opportunities. Tories are engaged in a contest to determine who will lead their party. Two men vying for the party's top post share the same first name but represent different approaches to challenging a weaker Blair and Labor Party. As Democrats get closer to midterm elections they seem pointed down the same path that British Conservatives trekked earlier this year. Unless they focus on their own message, instead of relying of the GOP's problems, electoral success may elude them. ------- David Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com. |
