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Poll shows Beebe with 18-point lead over Hutchinson in governor's race Tuesday, Oct 3, 2006 By Rob Moritz Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - Democrat Mike Beebe maintained a double-digit lead over Republican Asa Hutchinson in the governor's race, according to results of a second independent poll commissioned by Arkansas News Bureau-Stephens Media released Monday. The poll, conducted by Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock, showed Beebe was the favorite of 53 percent of respondents and Hutchinson was favored by 35 percent. Independent candidate Rod Bryan garnered 2 percent and Green Party of Arkansas candidate Jim Lendall had 1 percent. An Opinion Research Poll released in August showed Beebe with a 21-point lead - 52 percent to 31 percent. The telephone poll of 500 people likely to vote in the Nov. 7 general election was conducted from Sept. 26 through Saturday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. "I think we're seeing what could be a termed a trend," Opinion Research pollster Ernie Oakleaf said. "(Hutchinson) hasn't made any dramatic headway over the last poll." Oakleaf, who received some criticism from Republicans after the August poll, said if Beebe's 21-point lead then was far off, it should have corrected itself in the most recent poll. Beebe's campaign welcomed the latest poll results. Hutchinson discounted them. Beebe spokesman Zac Wright said the candidate was pleased with the poll, but added, "The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day." Hutchinson said "credible independent polls" and his internal polling showed the race to be close, with his campaign gaining momentum. "I am very pleased with our growing support and I'm working toward an Election Day victory with the final result being determined by actual voters," he said in a release. Both campaigns declined to give details of internal polling. Beebe, state attorney general and a longtime state senator, and Hutchinson are to participate in the second of three scheduled gubernatorial debates Wednesday evening at Fayetteville. On Monday, Oakleaf described the earlier poll as a "worst case scenario" for Hutchinson because several factors were working against the former congressman, federal Drug Enforcement Administration director and undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. At the time, Beebe had already begun television advertising and Hutchinson had not, President Bush's popularity had bottomed out and gas prices were skyrocketing, Oakleaf said. Since then, he noted, Bush's popularity has risen, gas prices have fallen dramatically and Hutchinson has aired three statewide television ads. "The context for the current poll is not nearly so bleak for Hutchinson, yet he is still substantially behind," Oakleaf said. The pollster did say that Hutchinson's recent television advertising appears to have had an impact with voters because the GOP candidate's total name recognition now stands at 91 percent, up 7 points from 84 percent in August. The problem, according to Oakleaf, is that Hutchinson's unfavorable rating has risen from 33 percent in the August to 39 percent in the current poll. Oakleaf said his poll results are similar to a recent poll conducted by Survey USA, which showed Beebe leading by 17 percentage points. Clint Reed, executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas, downplayed the Opinion Research poll. "These numbers are just a continuation of the wild variances in recent polling data," Reed said. "Last week, John Zogby had the governor's race within the margin of error. So, I still do not give credence to Mr. Oakleaf's poll numbers." Opinion Research interviewed 125 people in each of the state's four congressional districts. According to the results, Beebe leads in all but the 3rd District, the traditional Republican stronghold in Northwest Arkansas where Hutchinson won three congressional elections before joining the Bush administration. There, Hutchinson led 49 percent to 35 percent. Beebe led 60 percent to 35 percent in Northeast Arkansas' 1st District, 56 percent to 31 percent in Central Arkansas' 2nd District and 57 percent to 33 percent in South Arkansas' 4th District. According to the poll, 63 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of Beebe to 46 percent for Hutchinson. Seventeen percent had an unfavorable view of the Democratic candidate while 39 percent viewed the GOP nominee unfavorably. In the August poll, Beebe got a 61 percent favorable rating and 14 percent unfavorable. Hutchinson got 44 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable. Measuring the candidates' support by political philosophy, Hutchinson was favored by conservatives 53 percent to 36 percent while moderates favored Beebe 66 percent to 25 percent. Liberals also favored Beebe, 60 percent to 26 percent. The Democrat also was the favorite of independents, 39 percent to 30 percent for Hutchinson. In a measure of party support, 87 percent of Democrats and 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Beebe, while 85 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Democrats said they favored Hutchinson. Among white-collar respondents, Beebe garnered 49 percent and Hutchinson 41 percent. Beebe also bested Hutchinson among blue-collar workers, 51 percent to 40 percent. Respondents 65 and older favored Beebe, 62 percent to 26 percent. Hutchinson garnered more support among respondents in the highest income group, $75,000 and above, 51 percent to 40 percent Beebe led an all the lower income categories. |
