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The governor's race: Beebe or Hutchinson? Sunday, Oct 29, 2006 By David Sanders Counting down the days until voters go to the polls en masse to cast ballots, there are two reasonable outcomes in the race for governor. National polling firms like Zogby and Rasmussen have had the race close with only single digits separating the candidates, while some of the homegrown pollsters give Mike Beebe a larger lead over Asa Hutchinson. Let's examine the two outcomes and why one candidate might prevail over the other. Reasons Beebe could be the next governor: 1. Arkansas is still a Democratic state. This alone could be the most important factor leading to Beebe's election. In January 1997, many in the GOP were overwhelmed with joy, thinking that the Republican revolution had finally reached Arkansas. For the first time ever, the two parties split the state's congressional delegation. Republicans could boast of having a governor and lieutenant governor for the second time in the state's history. Since 1998, Arkansas Democrats have steadily made gains by turning back the GOP successes in the early and mid-1990s. Blanche Lincoln was elected in 1998, Mike Ross in 2000; Mark Pryor won in 2002 and 2004, and Democrats turned back GOP gains in the state Legislature for the first time in 14 years. 2. He morphed into a conservative Republican, both on economic and social issues. Unlike their comrades in other areas of the country, Arkansas Democrats have made gains by adopting conservative-sounding positions on social issues around election time. Beebe has taken imitation to a new level by trying to make cutting taxes a cornerstone of his campaign, while fully embracing his shotgun and preacher. 3. Money talks and it buys a lot of ad space. Beebe has always had the financial advantage over Hutchinson. Special interest groups have dumped money into Beebe's campaign, which has created a sense of inevitability. In the final stages of the campaign, Beebe can afford to flood television, radio and newspapers in all areas of the state with his campaign advertisements, both soft-pedaling his message and bashing Hutchinson, which in turn creates enormous advantage over Hutchinson, who can only make strategic ad buys in those same mediums. Reasons Hutchinson could be the next governor: 1. Seventy-two hours and a lot more. The state Republican Party's 72-hour strategy, coupled with its microtargeting efforts, could successfully turn out the voters needed to edge Hutchinson toward a winning percentage. Presidential adviser and campaign guru Karl Rove believes his election-eve blueprint will help in close races across the country. Republicans close to the Arkansas effort believe that if Hutchinson can close the gap to 4 or 5 percentage points, they have the mechanism to close the gap and push him on to victory. On Monday, the Republican Governors Association will land in the Natural State with its out-of-state workers to help execute a turnout plan. 2. He framed the issues. From the second the two candidates debated on television, Hutchinson dictated the terms of the debate. He wrestled the food tax issue away from Beebe and took the historic winning position on schools from past gubernatorial elections by being against consolidation and painting Beebe as the candidate who wants to shut down rural schools. 3. Superior ads from his campaign and from the outside. Republican ad man Scott Howell has directed Hutchinson's creative effort. His political advertisements on immigration, three-hour bus rides, contrast on social issues, and, lest we forget, the cute kids who want to grow up to be like Mike Beebe, have cut through the clutter that fills so much time on television. The Coalition for Arkansas' Future, the 527 group that funded the ads, has been busy painting Beebe in the corner on same-sex foster parents and now linking him to convicted felon and former Democratic state Sen. Nick Wilson. With days to go, a winning outcome is still an option for either candidate. ------- David Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com. |
