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Traction? Or grasping at straws? Wednesday, Aug 8, 2007 By David Sanders For Mike Huckabee the glass is always half full. As the former Arkansas governor campaigned in Sioux City, Iowa, on Monday, he was buoyed by the good news that his long-shot candidacy is gaining "some" traction heading into Saturday's straw poll. He pointed to his showing in a poll, which had him tied with John McCain garnering 8 percent, as evidence that his campaign is headed in the right direction. Then, coming out of Sunday's debate there was news that a focus group had given Huckabee the highest of marks for his debate performance. This was all he needed to sustain him. For months Huckabee has been touting the straw poll as the most important single event for his fledgling campaign. During the past week, Huckabee has been tempering expectations, but for better or worse, Saturday's straw poll is largely seen as a make-or-break moment. On Monday, Huckabee sounded positive. He said he could very well finish in third place, but that a fourth or fifth place finish wouldn't be a campaign-ender if the spread between No. 2 and No. 5 wasn't too disparate. He claimed that his campaign is receiving an outpouring of support as his county coordinators are surpassing their goals for obtaining "commitment cards" from Iowa voters who are going to the straw poll. According to Huckabee, his little dustup with Kansas Senator Sam Brownback involving an overzealous Huckabee supporter who had urged a few Brownback supporters to switch their allegiance because their man was Catholic wasn't hurting him. In fact, he said it is working to his advantage because what Huckabee's campaign manager, who is also Catholic, called Brownback's perceived whining. Huckabee said his campaign is receiving significant support from former Brownback backers making the jump to his campaign as a result of the Kansas senator's behavior. He believes his vocal support for the fair tax, a proposal which would scrap the entire tax code and replace it with a 23 percent national sales tax, will aid him Saturday. Iowa Republicans are completely enamored with the fair tax and, as a matter of policy, have called on Washington to enact it into law. American for Fair Taxation, the group pushing the revolutionary idea, will be busing supporters to the straw poll, which Huckabee believes will work to his advantage. So where does all of this leave Huckabee? Clearly, however small it maybe, he does have some momentum going into Saturday. But in the same poll that showed him gaining enough to tie McCain, only 1 percent viewed Huckabee as campaigning "hardest" in Iowa. This placed him even with Newt Gingrich, who isn't a candidate, and behind first-tier candidates and the likes of Brownback, Tommy Thompson and Tom Tancredo. Iowa voters are known for rewarding candidates who work hard to earn their support. Perhaps Huckabee's nonstop campaigning will help their perception of him. Brownback helps Huckabee because of his willingness to go out and attack Mitt Romney's conservative credentials. The Brownback campaign is doing the dirty work, but the candidate seems to be getting dirty in the process. Huckabee has the luxury of sitting back and avoiding the mud while enjoying the benefit from Romney's weakening. Tom Tancredo is the wild card. Some Iowa observers have said he may be the surprise come Saturday. If Tancredo makes a strong showing and finishes behind Romney, the rest of the second-tier pack, including Huckabee, may face the end of the road soon. Politics is all about timing and Huckabee appears to have a few things working to his advantage. Despite his lack of funds, his campaign has managed to do a lot with very little. Look for him to do well Saturday. ------- David Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is a host of the Arkansas Education Television Network's "Unconventional Wisdom." His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com. |
