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Huck mania - behold it Sunday, Dec 2, 2007 By John Brummett Record this date: Wednesday, Nov. 28, 2007. That's when it began to appear credibly that Mike Huckabee actually could become the Republican nominee for president. You say you can't believe you're reading such a thing? Think about being the guy who wrote it. On this date, these things happened: Rasmussen put out its latest overnight poll in Iowa. No longer did it show Our Boy Mike closing on Mitt Romney. It showed Huckabee ahead, 28-to-25. Another Rasmussen poll came out in Florida showing Huckabee second. A national poll by Rasmussen showed Huckabee third, up from fifth. Press reports accused Rudy Giuliani, the national front-runner, of funny business with public reimbursement of personal expenses when he was mayor of New York. They had the CNN/YouTube debate. Adjudging victory in such a debate is purely subjective. That said, Our Boy Mike won. The pundits said so, most of them, with the stipulation that he wins on style more than substance, of which he has, well, not so much. Huckabee looked brave and semi-eloquent this night defending his advocacy for college scholarships for illegal immigrants' children. Romney and Giuliani, both altogether unpleasant this evening, sniped at each other, each hurting himself and the other, combining to provide an opening to ... guess who? It wasn't Fred Thompson, who used the opportunity granted all the candidates to display a campaign commercial to present one attacking his opponents. It was as if he had nothing to say for himself, which, of course, he hasn't. John McCain, once the premier Republican politician in the country, was pretty much reduced to sparring with the goofy libertarian, Ron Paul. What's happening? Attrition, that's what. This race has been a demolition derby, and Huckabee's jalopy suddenly rolls along as the least-damaged. First, Republicans normally select their nominee pre-emptively, either because it's someone's turn, like Bob Dole's, or through whole-cloth creation, like George W. Bush. But that didn't happen this time, for various reasons. McCain, whose turn it might have been, faded because he's too moderate and a maverick for the Republican base. Giuliani ascended, but on soft support based on celebrity and in spite of his social liberalism. Romney filled the void awhile, at least in Iowa and New Hampshire if never nationally, but he has begun to slide, maybe because of his Mormonism and maybe because he's too slick and a brazen flip-flopper. Second, there always was a place in this race for a Southern conservative. But Jeb Bush didn't run. George Allen imploded. Bill Frist made a fool of himself. Thompson got in after great hoopla, but with a decided thud. Third, there always was a place in Iowa for a Christian evangelical who, if consolidating that base, might be looking at a fifth to a quarter of the caucus. So that base appeared to be split between Huckabee and Sam Brownback of Kansas. But then those two had their big showdown in the Ames straw vote. Huckabee won. Brownback is gone. Evangelicals are gravitating to and coalescing around Huckabee as they begin to worry about Romney's Mormonism. Fourth, Giuliani, McCain and Thompson, afraid of investing in Iowa and losing, have pretty much ceded the state. So it's Huckabee with fresh momentum against Romney, shop-worn and fading. So here we are. For fun, let's track my punditry on Huckabee's campaign. I said he had no prayer. Then I said he'd have a moment in the sun. Then I said the Ames straw vote was pointless. Then I said he'd be a one-night wonder in Iowa in early January. Now? I still lean to the one-night wonder, and suspect that Huckabee still will get swamped by Romney's and Giuliani's money. But I probably ought to just shut up. It looks like most of the political talent in America was born in Hope, Arkansas. ------- John Brummett is a columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is jbrummett@arkansasnews.com; his telephone number is (501) 374-0699. |
