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Huckabee first in national GOP poll Thursday, Dec 6, 2007 By Aaron Sadler Stephens Washington Bureau WASHINGTON - Support for Mike Huckabee's presidential bid climbed to its highest level ever Wednesday as one national poll showed the former Arkansas governor ahead of the Republican field. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely GOP primary voters put Huckabee in first place with 20 percent support, followed by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with 17 percent. Huckabee's sudden surge in national polls - he picked up eight points over the past week - carries over to Arkansas. A Rasmussen poll of likely voters in the state show Huckabee ahead of Hillary Clinton in a general election showdown between former residents of the Governor's Mansion. Huckabee's lead over Giuliani is within the statistical margin of error. Five hopefuls are in double digits nationally in a Republican race that remains in flux, said Scott Rasmussen, whose company produced the poll. "His surge is more about the weakness of the rest of the field than it is about Mike Huckabee," Rasmussen said in an interview. "People don't know him very well at the moment. I suspect that will change." Rasmussen polls 600 likely Republican primary voters in an automated telephone survey nightly. Wednesday's results are based on a four-day average ending Tuesday and have a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Huckabee trails Giuliani in other national surveys. A USA Today/Gallup poll released Tuesday puts Giuliani ahead by nine points, at 25 percent. Huckabee, Romney, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee are all essentially tied for second. Veteran Arkansas pollster Ernie Oakleaf said some of his counterparts question the validity of the Rasmussen Reports poll because it is automated. However, he said such polls have measured elections with "reasonable" success. "They generally in recent years have performed better than the skeptics have expected, so I wouldn't dismiss it offhand," Oakleaf said. Rasmussen Reports' survey of Arkansas voters put Huckabee ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 42 percent if the two were to meet in the general election next November. The state's former first lady is seeking the Democratic nomination for president. The survey found that 63 percent of Arkansas voters expect Clinton to be the Democratic nominee. About 39 percent think Huckabee will be the GOP's pick. The Arkansas-specific results were gleaned from a survey taken Monday of 500 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. An October poll conducted by the University of Arkansas indicated 35 percent of Arkansans picked Clinton when asked who they supported. Huckabee and Giuliani garnered 8 percent apiece. Considered a long shot nationally until just a few weeks ago, Huckabee has built support despite a budget and organization far smaller than that of many of his competitors. With his increased popularity comes new scrutiny of his record as governor. Rivals have criticized his position on immigration and questioned tax increases implemented on his watch. Wednesday, Huckabee faced a new round of attacks for his role in the 1997 parole of convicted rapist Wayne Dumond. New criticism comes at the best possible time for Huckabee, said Peverill Squire, a University of Iowa political science professor. Iowa voters may be too busy with holiday activities to notice Huckabee's negatives ahead of the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, Squire said. Huckabee has pushed ahead in Iowa and made significant strides in other early-primary states. He is counting on a strong performance in the Hawkeye State to generate momentum heading to New Hampshire five days later. "I think, given people's attention is elsewhere, Huckabee may be able to scoot past some of these problems," Squire said. The Southern Baptist minister has relied on support among evangelical Christians in Iowa to mount a neck-and-neck battle with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for that state's GOP delegates. "Iowa is driving the process for Huckabee," Squire said. "In essence, the Iowa Republicans are beginning to give Huckabee a seal of approval that generates more attention than elsewhere in the country." Squire said the new front-runner can credit former supporters of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., an ideologically similar social conservative who dropped out of the race in October. He's also buoyed by Thompson's less-than-stellar campaign, said Lee Sigelman, a political science professor at George Washington University. "I think it's a comment on the lack of enthusiasm for the rest of the Republicans, (Huckabee) plays the role I think that Fred Thompson was supposed to play," Sigelman said. "Thompson was kind of a man on a horse who was waiting to ride in, and nothing good happened." |
