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Pundits say Huckabee momentum will slow Friday, Dec 7, 2007 By Aaron Sadler Stephens Washington Bureau WASHINGTON - Political experts from four early-voting states predicted Thursday a tough road to the Republican presidential nomination for Mike Huckabee, even if he wins the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus. The cash-strapped Huckabee will not be able to combat negative advertising or put in place the campaign organization to carry over momentum from Iowa to other early states, a panel of newspaper reporters and columnists said during a forum at George Washington University. Huckabee could win Iowa then hit a wall in New Hampshire five days later, said the editorial page editor of New Hampshire's largest newspaper, the Union Leader. "It will still be extremely difficult for him to win in New Hampshire," said the Union Leader's Drew Cline. "I don't think Huckabee is going to do all that well in New Hampshire. I just don't see him catching fire." Huckabee has built a narrow lead in Iowa behind motivated evangelical Christians who agree with the Southern Baptist minister on social issues. In New Hampshire, where fiscal conservatives dominate the GOP voting bloc, Huckabee consistently trails three others in polling. Meanwhile, as the Iowa frontrunner and leader in one recent national poll, Huckabee faces new criticism daily. His rivals have hit him on his record in Arkansas on taxes and immigration. Some media outlets this week scrutinized his role in the parole of convicted rapist Wayne Dumond. Jeanne Cummings, a columnist for the political newspaper, The Politico, said she expects GOP opponents to exploit Huckabee's newfound momentum with anti-Huckabee direct mailings in Iowa just days before that state's first-in-the-nation caucuses. "He'll never see it coming," Cummings said, adding that the attacks by mail will probably be delivered to Republican voters right after Christmas. "He won't have the money and it will be difficult for him to respond," said David Yepsen, a longtime columnist for the Des Moines (Iowa) Register. The timing would negate one benefit to Huckabee's sudden surge - that criticism comes during the holidays. No one will attack Huckabee around Christmas, or risk voter backlash, Yepsen said. "What are you going to do? Roll out an attack ad on Christmas Eve with 'Silent Night' playing the background?" Yepsen said. The compressed primary schedule starts in Iowa, followed by the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary and a Jan. 19 primary in South Carolina. By early February, half the states will have had their nominating contests. Huckabee had raised a little over $2 million by Sept. 30 - not enough to mount a serious challenge, Cummings said. "The thing about Huckabee is he ran and won as governor as a conservative, small state," she said. "Right now, he's running for governor of Iowa." A poll released Thursday puts Huckabee in front in South Carolina, though four other GOP hopefuls are close behind, said Lee Bandy of The (Columbia, S.C.) State. The eventual Republican nominee has won South Carolina's first-in-the-South primary every year since 1980. In the poll cited by Bandy, Huckabee was at 23 percent, ahead of Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, both at 17, Mitt Romney at 14 and John McCain at 10. "As long as I've covered South Carolina politics, I've never seen a presidential race that close," Bandy said. "That indicates to me the Republican voters aren't happy with their choices." |
