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Iowa's earthquake and New Hampshire's aftershock Sunday, Jan 13, 2008 By David Sanders The more you see the less you know; the less you find out as you go; I knew much more then than I do now. U2, City of Blinding Lights When Barack Obama chose U2's epic track to signal the penultimate moment of every campaign rally - The Edge's ethereal guitar riffs lead the senator onto stages across the country amid throngs of passionate supporters - he probably had no clue that the song's first three lines would be the perfect description of how so many political observers feel after watching the New Hampshire primary play out. This Democratic campaign was supposed to be easy. We've known since 2000 that Sen. Hillary Clinton would make her White House run this year and, as recently as a couple months ago, believed that as sure as she was running, she would win it all. But somewhere on the way to Iowa inevitability became passe. Obama came on strong and won it all in Whiteyland. No one could explain his victory in standard political terms. It was, according to the commentators, (including quasi conservatives David Brooks and Bill Kristol) nothing short of a seismic event that moved beyond politics. His win was a cultural and generational shift, a marker for all of history worthy of its own designation: BI2K8, before Iowa 2008, and AI2K8, after Iowa 2008. Hillary and the entire Clinton team believed the hype. She was under so much pressure that when pushed emotionally her guard fell. But the post-Iowa, pre-New Hampshire, poll-aided narrative, which buried Hillary and transformed Obama from the skinny black guy with a penchant for giving a good speech into an unstoppable force unlike anything seen before, was hard to swallow. This was, after all, 2008, which as has been predicted here, a year that would produce an electorate with a fierce anti-Washington sentiment. And why not? In 2006, voters threw out the self-indulgent Republicans who were drunk with power and taken with Washington's time-honored tradition of loading appropriations bills with earmarks. At the same time, voters revolted against President Bush's Iraq strategy, which resulted in more Americans and Iraqis being killed. Bush and some of the Republicans got the message, but the voters got an overreaction embodied in Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Despite pledges to end it, the war Pelosi & Co. hated so much continued and conditions on the ground improved following the surge. Democrats pledged to end earmarks, but that didn't last long, as pork made a resilient comeback last year. The House leadership pledged longer workweeks, but that fell through. To the normal voter, what transpired during the past three years was a strong indication that Washington is not working. Rewarding someone they perceived to be part of the problem was the last thing Iowa voters (in either party) wanted to do. Obama was the outsider and Hillary had spent eight years in the White House. But along came New Hampshire, where Democratic primary voters provided a slight correction with Hillary barely edging out Obama. Translation: Wholesale change split with experience. Voters there like to make up their own minds and don't like to be told who to vote for. Things have settled down as the rest of the campaign begins to play itself out in Nevada and South Carolina. Obama lost his messianic mantle, but he's still exciting. Though Hillary was humbled, she regained her voice. The lessons: Polls can be wrong. Pundits can be wrong and occasionally need to regain their equilibrium, especially after being knocked off their axis. Great minds do think alike, but in politics great minds usually come around to what the greatest minds were already thinking. (Unfortunately the greatest minds aren't always the ones offering commentary on cable news channels.) Blockbuster vs. sequel; change vs. experience or - if I might draw from a great hymn of the faith - "bright hope for tomorrow" vs. "strength for today." However defined, the contest between Obama and Clinton is one of the most over-hyped in recent electoral history. ------- David Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is a host of the Arkansas Education Television Network's "Unconventional Wisdom." His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com. |
