|
|
| |
| Wed, Aug. 20, 2008 |  |
 |
|
||
| |
Arkansas' first president-only primaries worth it, observers say Sunday, Jan 27, 2008 By Doug Thompson Arkansas News Bureau FAYETTEVILLE - It seemed like a good idea to lawmakers to move Arkansas' presidential primaries from May to Feb. 5. The rationale was to give Arkansas an earlier say in the 2008 presidential race and to draw the attention and business of candidates and the media covering them, legislators argued back in 2005. Only seven states held presidential primaries or caucuses that early in the last presidential election. Iowa and New Hampshire were even earlier. The only ones who argued against it pointed out the state has to pay for these primaries, thanks to a court decision that the state bear this expense to ensure all parties' voters are treated fairly. It looks like an even better idea now, even though 16 other states have moved their presidential primary to the first Tuesday in February, says the Democratic Party of Arkansas chairman. "We have former first lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton and former Gov. Mike Huckabee running in these primaries. The idea of not getting to vote in these races until our regular May 20 primaries is something we would have regretted forever," state Democratic chairman Bill Gwatney said. "The only other state that would have voted after us would have been South Dakota." The Republican Party chairman is not as sold on the idea of an earlier, president-only primary. Let's get through the thing before deciding if moving was worthwhile, Dennis Milligan said. And what about future years if presidential primaries don't have Arkansans in them? "Look at the excitement this has created," Gwatney said. "Look at the record turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire. I think this thing is snowballing everywhere, building upon itself." In a related development, the Green Party qualifies to hold its presidential primary in Arkansas for the first time this year. Supporters gathered 10,000 signatures allowing their party to have a ballot. In all, the early primary will cost the state about $2 million, according to Natasha Naragon, spokeswoman for Secretary of State Charlie Daniels. Twenty-four states will hold one or both of their party presidential pickings on the same day as Arkansas. Nine are earlier. Michigan and Florida have had their Democratic primaries declared invalid because they moved the dates up sooner than party rules allow. Republicans are in the same boat in Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, Wyoming and New Hampshire but will only be penalized by having half their delegates taken away, if the national GOP sticks to that punishment. More than half of the delegates to this year's Democratic National Convention will base their votes on the Feb. 5 results, compared to about two out of five delegates to the Republican National Convention. Arkansas gets 47 delegates to the Democratic convention and 34 to the GOP convention. Most, but not all, will vote according to the Feb. 5 election results. This is out of a total of 1,688 Democratic and 976 Republican delegates that will be committed to candidates on Feb. 5. "Oh, I think it would be accurate to say that Arkansas will have a small voice, but we won't be drowned out," said Hoyt Purvis, professor of journalism and political science at the University of Arkansas. It's better than having no voice at all, Purvis said, adding, "This election's so wild and crazy, it's hard to know what effect it's going to have." Andrew Dowdle, an assistant political science professor at the university, said Arkansas' results will be worthwhile, and closely watched. Dowdle is writing a book on the U.S. presidential primary process. "Obviously, in terms of delegates, it's not very important, but you have two candidates closely associated with Arkansas in the primaries, one on each side," Dowdle said, adding that Clinton and Huckabee have to do well in the state or it would be an embarrassment for them. "It's almost a no-win proposition for them," Dowdle said. "If they win, people expected them to do well but there's not a whole lot of delegates. If they don't do as well, people will be looking at that as a negative referendum." Arkansas is not a "winner-take-all" state. Most serious candidates have a chance to pick up some delegates - and cut into the expected leads of the hometown favorites, political observers said. "That's especially true in the Republican primary, where you can pick up delegates with as little as 10 percent of the vote," said Jay Barth, political science professor at Hendrix College in Conway. Dowdle said the decision on whether to campaign in Arkansas becomes a calculation. "If you're Barack Obama, John Edwards or a Republican candidate other than Huckabee, do you spend time and effort to pick up a couple of delegates?" he said. "Even if you don't get that many delegates, it could be worth it to require Huckabee and Clinton to spend resources here that they could spend elsewhere." Outright victory isn't the only desirable result for other candidates, Barth said. "That's the lay of the land. We have two clear favorites but a delegate hunt," he said. With the Democrats, 22 delegates are elected by congressional district. The 1st and 2nd Districts get six while the 3rd and 4th districts get five. The difference comes because the number of delegates a district gets is based on Democratic turnout in presidential and governor's elections, he said. All these are sorted among the candidates according to the percentage each candidate gets of the vote in each of the districts on Feb. 5. Another eight are at-large delegates for the whole state. They are apportioned according to the percentage of the vote in the whole state. That leaves 17. Of those, 11 are "super-delegates" who may vote as they wish, but all but three of those are pledged to Clinton. These super-delegates are congressmen, the governor - if the governor is a Democrat - and party leaders, including Gwatney. Gwatney and U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., have not pledged to any candidate. "As party leader, I'm going to give my delegate vote to whoever wins our state primary," Gwatney said. Milligan said he's committed to Huckabee. The balance consists of "Pledged Party Leader and Elected Official" delegates, which includes other state elected officials, including legislators and mayors of major Arkansas cities. The GOP has 19 at-large delegates who are apportioned according to the statewide vote. A total of 12 delegates are picked by congressional district, with each district getting three. The balance is made up by "super delegates" such as Milligan. The Green Party's delegate selection process is still being debated by the national party, said Jim Lendall of Mablevale, the organization's national committee member from Arkansas. One thing that county officials are left to wonder about is what effect, if any, the presidential primary will have on the May 20 state primaries. "I think there's a chance it could hurt turnout in both primaries," said John Burrow, Washington County Election Commission chairman. "There are people who vote in presidential primaries that aren't all that interested in local races, and people who vote in local races that aren't all that interested in presidential politics |
