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Jamie Oliver, a member of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign staff in Arkansas, works the phones Thursday at Clinton's headquarters in Little Rock. Clinton, Democratic rival Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee are the only presidential candidates who have opened offices in Arkansas. (Photo by John Lyon) Arkansas sees limited campaigning by presidential candidates Sunday, Feb 3, 2008 By John Lyon Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - As Super Tuesday draws near, Arkansans haven't exactly been stampeded by candidates seeking their vote. By Friday, only two candidates - the two with close ties to Arkansas - had made campaign appearances in the Natural State this year: Republican candidate Mike Huckabee, who was governor for 10 years, and Democratic candidate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., who was first lady for 12 years. Huckabee, whose national campaign headquarters are in Little Rock, made his first public appearance in the state this year on Friday, holding a rally at Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport in Highfill. He was scheduled to hold another rally in Texarkana on Monday. Clinton's first appearance in the state this year was on Wednesday, when she held a rally in North Little Rock. Chelsea Clinton campaigned for her mother in Jonesboro on Jan. 27, and former President Bill Clinton appeared on her behalf Friday at Pine Bluff and also was scheduled to stop in Texarkana later Friday. Like Huckabee and Hillary, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has a campaign office in Little Rock, but as of Friday he had not visited the state since October 2006, when he appeared at a rally supporting then-gubernatorial candidate Mike Beebe and other Democrats. Beebe later endorsed Clinton for president. The first candidate to run television ads on broadcast stations in the state this year was Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, whose ads began airing last Monday. Ads for Obama and Clinton began airing on Arkansas stations Friday, four days before the primary. In contrast, ads for Democrat John Kerry were running on Arkansas television stations months before the state's May 2004 presidential primary. President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, Kerry and running mate John Edwards all campaigned in the state in advance of the 2004 primary, with Bush making three visits. The Arkansas connections of Huckabee and Hillary Clinton apparently have discouraged other candidates from making a major push in the state, according to Andrew Dowdle, assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas. "With two home-state candidates, that's going to end up reducing the amount of campaigning that you're going to end up seeing in the state," said Dowdle, who is in the early stages of preparing a book on the 2008 primary election. Dowdle noted that under state party rules, a Republican presidential candidate who receives more than 50 percent of the primary vote receives the bulk of the state's GOP delegates. Republican front-runners Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney "are probably conceding the state to Huckabee, thinking that there's probably little reason to expect that he's going to end up placing below 50 percent," Dowdle said. The state Democratic Party has a more proportional system for allocating delegates, which may explain why the Clintons have spent as much time as they have in the state, Dowdle said. However, Hillary Clinton's "home field advantage" and Arkansas' demographics may make the state less attractive to Obama than other Southern states, he said. "The percentage of the Democratic primary electorate that's going to be African-American is probably 20 or 25 percent. Comparing that to some Southern states, we're talking about 40 to 50 percent," Dowdle said. He added that with more than 20 states holding elections on Super Tuesday, candidates "have to pick and choose" where they will campaign. Aides of Obama and Huckabee echoed that point. "With 22 states coming up on Feb. 5, Barack is doing his best to make it to as many states as he can," Tim Fraser, Arkansas political director for the Obama campaign, said Thursday. Huckabee "will spend some time here, but the key is to go to the states and the areas where people have not met him and are not as familiar with his conservative message and spread that to folks that haven't heard it before," said Huckabee's press secretary, Alice Stewart, in a Jan. 24 interview. Obama's supporters have suggested that the Clintons' presence in Arkansas is a sign of weakness. Pulaski County Circuit Clerk Pat O'Brien said Wednesday that Hillary Clinton may have come to the state because she has doubts about succeeding in Arkansas. Not true, according to Brett Kincaid, Arkansas political director for the Clinton campaign. "I think it's foolish to overlook Arkansas," he said. "We take nothing for granted, and she wanted to come and talk to Arkansas voters. I don't see the correlation they're trying to draw." At Clinton's state headquarters Thursday, staff members and volunteers were using Bill Clinton's impending visit to try to excite potential supporters. "I wanted to let you know that Bill Clinton's going to be in Pine Bluff tomorrow," staff member Judy Gaddy said into the phone. Visits by candidates have a powerful impact, according to Jamie Oliver, volunteer coordinator and media representative for Clinton's Arkansas campaign. "I definitely think it helps energize people, and it really lets them know that they're really working for somebody that's tangible," Oliver said. Obama has only one paid staff person in Arkansas, compared to about 12 working for Hillary Clinton and about 25 at Huckabee's national headquarters. Fraser said the Obama campaign nevertheless has a strong presence in the state. "What we rely on, and what we have a great abundance of, are great volunteers that come in and give their days, their nights and their weekends, and the tremendous grassroots network here that has been working from the very beginning," he said. Dowdle said it will be interesting to see how Obama does in Arkansas. "Sen. Obama has done fairly well in terms of states where he's been able to spend a lot of time and effort organizing. What happens, though, when there's 20 states going at the same time?" he said. |
