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Beware of Hillary now Thursday, Feb 14, 2008 By John Brummett Never underestimate the Clintons. That's what one of their early close associates reminded me the morning after I'd fallen for the prevailing notion that Hillary was about to lose New Hampshire. And I will never do so again. It is true that Clinton has lost now eight primaries or caucuses consecutively to Barack Obama, most by embarrassing margins. It is true that Obama seems to be mounting not just a campaign, but a movement, and would appear to hold all the vital momentum. It is true that Obama is now winning white votes, if mostly men and not so many women, and a few Latinos. It is true Obama won every income group Tuesday in Virginia and Maryland. It is true that Obama now leads in delegates and that party rules will make it hard for Clinton to make up large chunks. That's unless the super-delegates bail her out, which they can't do until she starts winning somewhere. You must win congressional districts by large margins to make appreciable gains in delegates. Hillary could use some winner-take-all states right now, but Democrats don't believe in those. So how in the world could it be that Clinton is not finished, or effectively that? The Clinton cultists, so widespread in Arkansas, are surely in doubt and pain, if not panic. They're reduced rather pitiably to wanting to count those rogue primaries in Florida and Michigan. So let me try to give them some encouragement. Hillary lives by three factors, mainly. One is that the imminent slowdown in the pace of primaries or caucuses will temper Obama's streak and give Hillary a chance to get up from the mat and dust herself off. A movement needs to keep moving, and the reduced pace of events will necessarily decelerate the Barack surge. There will be only Wisconsin and Hawaii for Hillary to lose next week, most likely. Then there'll be a two-week respite before she puts everything on the line in Ohio and Texas, where, still, demographics and odds are in her favor. The second factor is something one of the talking heads said smartly Tuesday night. It's that the stirring outcomes from Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia made Obama the clear front-runner. It's that we can now expect a period of buyer remorse, or at least reconsideration. Obama's experience, his readiness, his fitness to weather Republican attacks - look for worries about those to start crossing the minds of Democrats yet to vote. The third is that Hillary surely can and will help with that. She now needs to attack, in part by saying Democrats need a tough candidate who can and will go to war against the Republicans. That's to be distinguished, you'll be given to understand, from a sweet and naive talker like Obama who gets Republicans' crossover votes in primaries and sounds sometimes like he practically longs to be a Republican. She's going to say it's all about the war and that John McCain would be better able in that context to exploit Obama, so young and inexperienced, than her. Two upcoming debates are huge. Obama needs to be advised to bring protective gear. He's about to get Tom McRae-ed, by which I refer to the late Arkansas Democratic gubernatorial candidate who thought he was having a fine news conference in 1990 until ambushed with the shrill interruptions of the wife of the Arkansas governor against whom he thought he was running. Hillary's situation calls for meanness. She has an aptitude and an inclination. There's this recurring theme with the Clintons. It's that they always face dramas, be they personal or political. Their political obituaries have been written too many times to count. They live by fourth-and-long, and they always convert. Am I really buying all of this about Hillary's lurking revival? Or am I merely fearing it - girding myself, that is, should it happen, considering that my recent columns ought to make clear that I don't want it to happen, and that I find Obama to be the far superior candidate and wish the Clintons would do us all the kind gesture of fading away? It's both. I expect it. And I sure do dread it. ------- John Brummett is a columnist for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock. His e-mail address is jbrummett@arkansasnews.com; his telephone number is (501) 374-0699. |
