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State revenues beat forecast in February, fall below year-earlier level
Wednesday, Mar 5, 2008

By Jason Wiest
Arkansas News Bureau

LITTLE ROCK - State revenues fell 3.4 percent in February from a year ago but beat the monthly forecast by 0.8 percent, state fiscal officers reported Tuesday.

Net available general revenues totaled $190.9 million, down $6.7 million from February 2007. Revenues were $1.5 million above forecast.

Gross receipts collections fell $3.2 million, or 1.9 percent, from a year ago but were 1.5 percent forecast, totaling $165.2 million.

Last month, gross receipts, which are an indicator of consumer spending, missed both the monthly forecast and year-earlier levels.

"While (gross receipts) are up a little bit, they're still not showing any kind of rebound," said Richard Weiss, director of the state Department of Finance and Administration, which puts out the report.

"I still see things trending downward with little fits and spurts here and there," Weiss said. "I think that (gross receipts collections) are going to keep on going down as we'll deal more and more with the effects of high fuel costs."

Weiss said falling revenue collections would likely result in an even more conservative forecast for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1, if the forecast is not revised before then.

Individual income tax collections in February totaled $188.3 million, up $26.3 million, or 16.3 percent, compared to the same month last year. Collections were $17.8 million, or 10.5 percent, above forecast.

Gains in individual withholding accounted for much of the increase in collections, officials said. Growth above forecast was partly attributable to one-time, non-recurring business transactions during the month, according to the department.

Corporate income tax collections totaled $3.6 million, down $100,000, or 3.2 percent from last year. Collections were 12 percent, or $400,000, above forecast.

Tobacco tax collections rose 6.6 percent from February 2007 to $10.8 million.

From collections since the beginning of the fiscal year July 1, net available general revenues total $$2.8 billion, $24.6 million, or 0.9 percent, higher than by February 2007 and $123.1 million above forecast.

With four months left in the fiscal year, "it looks like we're on track to have a surplus," Weiss said.

A conservative forecast and a stronger-than-expected economy last fall set the stage for the extra cash, he said.









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