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NC State is top flop Saturday, Mar 8, 2008 By Harry King LITTLE ROCK - North Carolina State is the biggest disappointment in college basketball, the FOXSports.com man opined, and I wondered if my cheat sheet had survived the office move. The odds on 100 teams to win the NCAA title was part of a package hand-delivered by a visitor to Vegas and is a viable resource for assessing disappointments and surprises. On the sheet, 27 teams were 40-1 or less to win the title and 10 of those were 15-1 or less. Three months later, all 10 are ranked in the top 18 in The AP poll. They are UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas, Louisville, Georgetown, Tennessee, Indiana, Michigan State and Duke, and somewhere in that group is the team that will win in San Antonio. Arkansas was one of a half-dozen teams listed at 30-1 and the Razorbacks are very much in the NCAA Tournament picture, somewhere between a couple of other 30-1 teams, N.C. State and Wisconsin. The Wolfpack had a double-digit lead over Duke on Saturday, but the Blue Devils made five 3s in the final 7 1-2 minutes to win 87-86. With that, N.C. State dropped to 4-11 in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Wisconsin is at the top of the Big Ten and looking at a No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Syracuse, Marquette and Gonzaga are the others who were 30-1. Syracuse is 8-9 in the Big East and on the cusp. Marquette has been in and out of the national rankings and is a lock with an 11-6 record in the Big East. Gonzaga is also home free. Despite the loss at Ole Miss, things are breaking right for Arkansas and an at-large bid is there for the taking. Losing at home to Mississippi State and Tennessee, Florida is in a hole and Arkansas has benefited from the Gators' demise. In fact, Ole Miss appears to be more likely than Florida to bump the Razorbacks. That was incomprehensible 10 days ago. At that point, Florida was 8-5 in the league and Ole Miss was 4-9. Now, the Gators are 8-7 with a game Sunday at Kentucky and the Rebels are a victory at Georgia away from 7-9. Arkansas will beat Auburn today and finish 9-7 in the SEC. Give NCAA bids to Tennessee, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, and set the stage for Atlanta by penciling in Florida at 8-8 and Ole Miss at 7-9. If Arkansas beats Vanderbilt, the Razorbacks are in. Their No. 38 RPI is seven notches better than the Rebels and 24 ahead of the Gators. If Arkansas loses and the SEC's power rating limits the league to five teams, the Rebels could bump the Razorbacks by beating Georgia in the first round and Kentucky in the second. Kentucky has lost Patrick Patterson for the season with a stress fracture in his ankle. The 6-foot-8 Patterson, who had a double-double in the victory over Arkansas, was averaging eight rebounds per game and 16.4 points - best in the league by a freshman. Without him, the Wildcats ran the shot clock under 10 on almost every possession at Tennessee on Sunday and lost 63-60 when Joe Crawford's 3 rimmed out. ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who is better than most at filling in the bracket beforehand, has Arkansas as a No. 11 seed against Butler in Birmingham. That projection is mentioned because the Bulldogs are one of three 150-1 shots in the top 16. In addition to the Horizon League champion, the others are Purdue and Vanderbilt. Drake and Davidson were considered such longshots that they were lumped with the field, unworthy of even the 300-1 for Ole Miss or 500-1 for Old Dominion. Champion of the Missouri Valley Conference, Drake is No. 20. Unbeaten in the Southern Conference, Davidson is No. 25. Fans of Arkansas and other teams still on the edges will sweat the results of the tournaments of the Horizon League and the Southern Conference. Both Butler and Davidson are going to get in, win or lose in the conference tournament. But, when there is an upset in the conference tournament, somebody gets squeezed. Arkansas can eliminate any angst by beating Auburn and Vanderbilt. ------- Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media's Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com. |
