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Poll shows support for severance tax increase, lottery Thursday, Mar 13, 2008 By John Lyon Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - If the election were held today, most Arkansans would vote for an initiated act to raise the state's severance tax, provided the ballot question explained who would pay the tax and how the money would be spent, the results of a university poll released Wednesday showed. The poll commissioned by the University of Central Arkansas also showed overwhelming support for a statewide lottery to fund college scholarships. Opinion Research Associates of Little Rock conducted the poll, which UCA President Lu Hardin commissioned as part of a seminar he is teaching on the 2008 elections. The firm surveyed a random sample of 500 registered voters by telephone March 6-11. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. Respondents were asked three questions about a possible ballot question to raise the state's severance tax, with more information included in each successive question. Former gas company executive Sheffield Nelson has proposed raising the tax, now one of the lowest in the nation, through an initiated act. Gov. Mike Beebe has said he wants to call a special session to raise the tax but will propose an initiated act if a special session fails to produce an increase. When asked if they would vote for a constitutional amendment to raise the tax - Opinion Research owner Ernie Oakleaf said the poll mistakenly described the proposed initiated act as a constitutional amendment - 29 percent of respondents said they would vote for it, 37 percent said they would vote against it and 34 percent were undecided. Respondents were then told that the tax would be "paid by corporations for removing resources such as timber and natural gas." Asked again how they would vote, 51 percent said they would vote for it, 32 percent said they would vote against it and 17 percent were undecided. After respondents were told that revenue from the tax increase, under Nelson's proposal, would be divided among highway improvements, higher education and cities and counties, 66 percent said they would vote for it, 24 said they would vote against it and 11 percent were undecided. "This is a significant percentage as Gov. Beebe negotiates with the Legislature," Hardin said at a Capital news announcing the poll results. Beebe has said he wants revenue from a severance tax increase to go to city and county roads and highways. Nelson's proposal would raise the tax from the current rate of three-tenths of 1 cent per 1,000 cubic feet of gas to 7 percent of the market value of the gas. Beebe said Tuesday he has obtained the support of the natural gas industry for a 5 percent increase, with certain exemptions. Hardin said because of uncertainty over what rate ultimately might be proposed to voters, the poll questions did not specify a rate. He said he did not believe specifying a rate would have changed the results much. Hardin is on record as supporting a severance tax increase. The poll also showed that Beebe has an 82 percent approval rating. Incoming House Speaker Rep. Robbie Wills, D-Conway, who supports raising the severance tax, said Wednesday the poll confirmed what he already suspected. "We've got a very popular governor who's proposed an idea that has a lot of support in the public. I hope my colleagues in the Legislature will read through the results of the poll and use that in their analysis of whether they'll support it or not," Wills said. House minority leader Johnny Key, R-Mountain Home, said Wednesday that 15 to 20 House Republicans now oppose raising the tax. A tax increase would be "a wrong signal to send other companies and other industries that might be looking to Arkansas," Key said. Respondents also were asked if they would support a constitutional amendment to create a statewide lottery to fund scholarships for Arkansas citizens to attend state colleges. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is seeking to place such an amendment on the November ballot. If the election were held today, 64 percent would vote for the proposal and 29 percent would vote against it, according to the poll. Seven percent were undecided. "I'm delighted that this survey of Arkansas opinion is in line with what I have heard from Arkansans all over the state, that there is a tremendous amount of support for a scholarship lottery," Halter said Wednesday. Jerry Cox, executive director of the Family Council, said the proposal is too vague and does not define what a lottery is. By November, voters will know more about the proposal and will reject it, as they have rejected previous lottery proposals, he said. The poll also showed that in a hypothetical presidential match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton and presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, Clinton would win Arkansas with 51 percent of the vote to McCain's 36 percent, but in a match-up between McCain and Barack Obama, McCain would win today with 43 percent to 27 percent. UCA spent $9,000 on the poll, Hardin said. ------- Reporter Jason Wiest contributed to this report. |
