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Dos and Don'ts of Bracket Tuesday, Mar 18, 2008 By Harry King LITTLE ROCK - Under the guise of a coffee break, the organizer distributed the NCAA bracket shortly after 9 a.m., suggested a donation of $2, and declared "Winner take all." Asked about his approach, a first-time participant shrugged, and then said with a straight face, "Hours of research ... phone calls." After a losing streak of 20-something years, my annual fee of $2 to $5 falls under charitable contributions on IRS form 1040. Still, experience counts for something, and there are some Dos and Don'ts for success in this infectious phenomenon. Do pick some upsets, particularly if the scorekeeper weights the results to reward such bravado. No. 12 Western Kentucky over No. 5 Drake should be considered. Same with No. 10 South Alabama over No. 7 Butler. Both of the underdogs are from the Sun Belt Conference and Arkansas-Little Rock assistant Joe Kleine will be the first to tell you those teams can compete with opponents from the mid-major conferences. Don't pick against the No. 1 seeds in the first two rounds. North Carolina, Arkansas' opponent in the second round if the Razorbacks beat Indiana on Friday night, has the college Player of the Year in Tyler Hansbrough. UCLA is on target for a third straight trip to the Final Four. Kansas and Memphis are the most likely losers among the No. 1s, but both should win at least two. Kansas might be the most talented and deepest team, but the Jayhawks are in the toughest bracket, with USC, Wisconsin and Georgetown in the lower half. Rarely pushed in Conference USA, Memphis is suspect at the foul line and will have to make some from 15 feet somewhere along the way, maybe even during its second round game in North Little Rock. Don't pick from the heart. It's OK to go with Arkansas in the first round, but not in the second against the Tar Heels. Among the other Southeastern Conference teams, No. 2 seed Tennessee should get past the first weekend and Vanderbilt is the SEC's best hope for another representative in the third round. Mississippi State is not deep enough to beat Memphis. Kentucky and Georgia are in trouble. Do pick from the heart. If you like the feel-good Baylor story or you have a friend with a son playing for St. Mary's of California, go for it. If you still hold a grudge from football long ago, go against Texas. Disdain for Duke would have been reason to pick No. 11 VCU over the No. 6 Blue Devils in 2007. Don't get caught up in the idea that the last game or two defines a team. Louisville was blowing and going until the Cardinals lost to Georgetown in the final game of the regular season and to Pittsburgh in the Big East tournament. Suddenly, they're nothing. Don't buy it. The Cardinals were 14-4 in a very physical league. On the flip side, Georgia beat three NCAA-bound teams in 29 hours in Atlanta, but the Bulldogs won't get past Xavier on Friday. Do schedule Thursday dinner around USC vs. Kansas State, which is to begin at 6:10 p.m. By 8:40, it is likely that the college career of O.J. Mayo or Michael Beasley will be over. They are two of the most talented freshmen in the country and both are NBA-bound. Don't be a lemming and join the in crowd that has identified Davidson and Winthrop as among those most likely to upset. Put all the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds in a hat and pick one. Such a system might yield Kansas State over USC or George Mason over Notre Dame. Do go through the bracket quickly, particularly the first 32 games. Analysis, breakdowns and scads of details are useless when Arkansas' Stefan Welsh can't miss from 3-point range or Tennessee's Chris Lofton clanks two free throws. Don't feel sorry for North Carolina. The Tar Heels don't have to leave the state until they head for San Antonio in early April. Do a fake bracket in ink, put your name on it, and leave copies around the office to confuse your cohorts. Don't second guess yourself. Fill out the form, turn it in and write off another charitable contribution on your tax return. ------- Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media's Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com. |
