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Big Brown likely to make history Thursday, Jun 5, 2008 By Harry King LITTLE ROCK - The occasional contemplation of the figures generated by a friend in Hot Springs begins with a reminder that his numbers contradict those produced by most handicappers. In his system, the lower the number, the faster the horse. Minus is even better than zero and that takes some getting used to for someone accustomed to seeing a speed figure of 100-plus assigned to the fastest thoroughbreds. His latest compilation is much easier to understand and provides some perspective on why no horse has won the Triple Crown since 1978. That year, Affirmed beat 10 horses in the Derby, six in the Preakness, and only four in the final leg - a total of 20. Of the 10 previous Triple Crown winners, only War Admiral and Assault defeated a total of more than 30 opponents. Big Brown faces nine opponents on Saturday. If he wins, he will have vanquished a total of 39 horses - seven more than War Admiral in 1937 and eight more than Assault in 1946. None of the Triple Crown winners faced more than seven others in the Belmont and the average size of the field was 5.5 horses. Since 1979, the Belmont field averaged 9.4 horses the 10 times that the Derby-Preakness winner failed in New York. Smarty Jones, the 2004 Arkansas Derby winner, beat a total of 33 horses - more than any Triple Crown champion, but finished second in the Belmont. More and more, the Belmont has become a target for 3-year-olds instead of the final race in a three-race series. Some run in the Derby, take five weeks to recuperate, and then race again in New York. Others don't compete in a Triple Crown race until the end. Either way, their presence makes it more difficult to win the 1 1-2-mile race. That said, Big Brown should win on Saturday. Whether this is an inferior group of 3-year-olds is immaterial; Big Brown can only run against the horses foaled in 2006. By process of elimination, Casino Drive and Ready's Echo - one-three in a May 10 race in New York - would appear to be Big Brown's main competition on Saturday. He was far in front of most the others in either Louisville or Baltimore. Casino Drive has been spectacular in his only two races and trainer Todd Pletcher, who won the 2007 Belmont with Rags to Riches, said the Belmont had been on the radar for Ready's Echo since a mid-April race at Keeneland. Choosing to support Denis of Cork, the winner of the Southwest at Oaklawn Park, is a reasonable alternative. He came from far back to run third in the Derby and that running line makes it appear that he is a big closer - a style that does not work well in the Belmont. Instead, he is more of a grinder, knocking out quarter miles of 24 seconds or more one after another. That is the style Birdstone employed when he beat Smarty Jones four years ago. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. and hoof specialist Ian McKinlay have assured the world that Big Brown's cracked left front hoof will not be a problem. McKinlay is to apply a patch on Friday. If the colt wins, there will be those who predict a resurgence in thoroughbred racing. No way. The connections of Smarty Jones had a story to tell and the telecast of his Belmont drew a 13.4 share, 29 percent better than the '03 show and the best since 1977. Last year, the telecast had a 3.1 share, down from 3.6 in 2006. Big Brown's story does not have the same sizzle and I wonder if his Belmont will do better than the CBS telecast last Saturday night of "Cucumber" Slice's victory in something known as Mixed Martial Arts. ---- Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media's Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com. |
