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Same headline, year later
Saturday, Jun 14, 2008

By Harry King

LITTLE ROCK - Prompted by Barry Bonds' dead aim on Hank Aaron's home run record, the column included a glimpse at those who might be next and those who could have been.

Written 11 months ago, it was crammed with names and numbers and crowned with the headline: "Next HR king?" Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols were at the top of list one and Ken Griffey Jr. was No. 1 on list two.

On Monday night, Griffey hit No. 600 - an untarnished accomplishment worth celebrating.

There was no joy in Mudville when a bulked-up Sammy Sosa did it last year or when the oversized Bonds reached that plateau in August 2002. Before them, the only other 600-HR men were Aaron, Babe Ruth and Willie Mays.

At 38, Griffey might have been somewhere between Mays' 660 and Aaron's 755 if he had cut some corners and consumed the same substances as Sosa and Bonds. Caught between expectations and production, he must have been tempted at some point to dabble on the dark side.

Because he refused to stray and did things the right way, he is considered injury-prone in some quarters with a variety of hamstring and knee injuries, plus an assortment of ankle, shoulder, and toe ailments. When he landed in Cincinnati in February 2000, he came with the label of the youngest player to reach the 350-homer mark.

In just the last eight seasons, Griffey has missed 453 games because of a variety of injuries. During that time, he has hit 30 or more home runs twice. From 1993 through 2000, he hit 40 or more ever year except 1995 when he only played in 72 games.

A year ago, the column included: "The first time that I saw Ken Griffey Jr. launch one for Seattle, I thought he might be the guy. His swing was picturesque, fluid and powerful."

Now No. 15 on the all-time list with 528, Rodriguez is the most logical choice to pass Bonds.

When Rodriguez hit No. 500 last August, he was 32 years and eight days. Jimmie Foxx was the previous fastest to 500 at 32 years, 338 days. Mays, Sosa, Aaron, Ruth and Griffey were already 34 when they reached 500.

"This is a stop-off for him," said Joe Torre, the Yankees' manager at the time. "It's not a destination."

True, but there are very real roadblocks to 763. It was only last month that Rodriguez spent 15 days on the disabled list with a strained right quadriceps. As a result, the Yankees are 40 percent of the way through the season and he only had 10 home runs through Thursday night.

If he stays healthy, will he want to play until he's 40 or so just to pass Bonds?

To reach the home run stratosphere, a hitter must start early, be consistent, and stay around a long time.

Pujols, who turned 28 early this year, had 201 home runs at 25, an age at which Rodriguez had 189. Pujols has already hit 16 this year, giving him 298 for his career, but Tuesday night he strained his left calf while running out a ground ball and he is expected to miss at least three weeks. The injuries to Pujols and Rodriguez illustrate the tenuousness of the 20-year-plus pursuit and any decline in production dampens long-range projections.

Pujols hit more than 40 for four straight years, but managed "only" 32 last year. Both Pujols and Rodriguez are likely to hit in the 30s this year.

Like him or not, Bonds may be at the top of the list for a long, long time.

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Harry King is sports columnist for Stephens Media's Arkansas News Bureau. His e-mail address is hking@arkansasnews.com.







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