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Lottery supporters, opponents release rival studies Thursday, Jun 26, 2008 By John Lyon Arkansas News Bureau LITTLE ROCK - Supporters and opponents of a proposed state lottery to fund college scholarships released two separate studies Wednesday, with each group saying its study supported its point of view. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter's pro-lottery campaign, Hope for Arkansas, released a study that it said affirmed its projections that if Arkansans approve Halter's proposed constitutional amendment to create a state lottery, net proceeds would be about $100 million annually. Arkansas Advocates for Families and Children, a non-profit group that has opposed previous lottery proposals, released a rival study projecting net proceeds from a lottery at $61.5 million a year. "A lottery is likely to bring significantly less revenue than lottery supporters contend," said Ginny Blankenship, the author of Arkansas Advocates' report. Hope for Arkansas obtained its projection by calculating the per-capita net proceeds of lotteries in surrounding states and multiplying that average by the population of Arkansas. The resulting figure was nearly $120 million, but the projection was revised to $100 million. "We revised that down to be conservative," said Bud Jackson, spokesman for Hope for Arkansas. Blankenship arrived at the lower projection by first calculating the average lottery ticket sales of five states with demographic similarities to Arkansas - Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico and West Virginia - in terms of percentage of state personal income, then applying that percentage to personal income in Arkansas to project annual ticket sales of $213.4 million. Blankenship then subtracted $149.4 million for prizes and administrative costs and another $2.5 million to adjust for sales taxes and local taxes expected to be lost because lottery purchases would "crowd out non-gambling expenditures." Jackson said both studies agree that "a scholarship lottery will generate tens of millions of dollars for new college scholarships every single year, so we're pleased by that." Arkansas Advocates also cited statistics to show lotteries have a negative impact on the poor, including a 1999 study by the National Gambling Impact Study Commission which found that lottery players with incomes under $10,000 spent almost three times as much money on lotteries as a percentage of their income as those with incomes over $50,000. A lottery to fund college scholarships "functions as a regressive tax that transfers wealth from low-income families to higher-income families," Blankenship said. Hope for Arkansas' study disputed that argument, citing research such as a 2001 Texas study which found that those with the lowest levels of education and income were the least likely to play the Texas Lottery. Comparing lottery spending in terms of percentage of income is "a red herring," Jackson said. "Lower-income people spend a larger percentage of their income on everything," he said. July 7 is the deadline for Halter to submit enough signatures to place his proposed constitutional amendment on the November ballot. Halter announced last month that he had already collected more than the requisite number of 77,468 signatures and was pushing for 100,000. |
