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House Republicans losing seats, friends Wednesday, Jul 2, 2008 By David J. Sanders Congressional Republicans' sad state of affairs is the subtext of the all-important presidential election year. After losing control of the House in 2006, things have gone from bad to worse. In special elections earlier this year, the GOP lost three House seats in what were once considered "safe Republican" districts in Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi. A more recent lesson is that having Washington ties really hurts. Last Tuesday, six-term Republican Rep. Chris Cannon of Utah lost the GOP nomination by 20 points to newcomer Jason Chaffetz. In California last month, former Rep. Doug Ose found out the hard way that being a former member of Congress isn't a sure way to win a Republican primary when he lost to state Sen. Tom McClintock. Some Republicans in Washington believe the GOP might have better luck with open seats than having to defend some of their incumbents who helped sully the Republican brand. Historically, congressional Republicans have always been able to fall back on the financial advantage enjoyed over Democrats. Not so this year. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has over $40 million in cash on hand, while Republicans only have $6 million. The leadership of the National Republican Congressional Committee has always boasted that their saving grace was a line of credit of over $25 million, but as a result of the recent financial fraud, that line of credit is in question. With all their problems, Republicans trudge toward the election with the enthusiasm of prisoners being led to the gallows. To understand how bad it is for the GOP, consider Indiana: Four years ago, Indiana had 7 Republicans to 2 Democrats in their delegation and at the time Republicans thought that they might be able to take out the two remaining Democrats in future elections. Now Democrats outnumber Republicans 5 to 4 and the GOP has little hope of winning back the three seats recently lost. Things got so bad for the GOP in one race for a House seat that the Republican decided suspend his campaign instead of sticking it out and facing voters in four months. Democrats are now considering targeting two of the remaining four seats and believe they have a good chance of winning at least one of them in the future. As if it wasn't bad enough, House Republicans are losing friends everywhere. It's rumored that GOP-friendly groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will be busy pouring money efforts to limit losses in the U.S. Senate, preventing Democrats from gaining filibuster proof majority instead of spending money in House races. There is a real fear that other "pro-Republican" groups may skip this year's elections out of fear of retribution that could come from what will assuredly be a stronger Democratic majority in the next Congress. As if it couldn't get any worse for Republicans, some are predicting that with Barack Obama leading the Democratic ticket, there will be a record minority turnout. Could the black vote double or triple what it was in 2004 or even quadruple what it was in 2006? It's possible. For those Republicans running in districts where there is a 30 percent or greater minority constituency, that isn't good news. Earlier this year, Republicans thought 2008 might resemble 1988 with a Republican winning the White House and Democrats gaining seats in the House and Senate, but it is starting to look more and more like 1976 where Republicans lost across the board. ------- David Sanders writes twice weekly for the Arkansas News Bureau in Little Rock and is a host of the Arkansas Education Television Network's "Unconventional Wisdom." His e-mail address is DavidJSanders@aol.com. |
